Cause and Effect Analysis

Mapping of nonparticipative observation events and issues as identified in the Online Log page are referenced in the following SOTU 2023 posts:

Domestic Events: U.S. Capital Attack, Congressional Baseball Game, San Bernadino Terrorist Attack, Fort Hood Shooting, Oklahoma City Bombing.

International Events: 911 attack on the New York Twin Towers, World Trade Center Bombing, War in Ukraine, Afghan War, EgyptAir Flight 990, Pan Am Flight 103, Beirut Barracks Bombing.

Causes of events can be identified through the process of cause-and-effect relationship analysis.

Domestic Issues: Border Security, FBI Cyber Strategy, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Profiteering, Education, Law and Order.

International Issues: Biological Warfare, Chemical Warfare, Cyber Warfare, Nuclear War Threat, Trade Wars, Undocumented Immigration.

For clarification, there are many more events and issues occurring than are listed here and in the referenced posts.

Items selected demonstrate instability and conflict at the national and international level.

For external references consult the War on Terror from the History Channel as one reference. There are many more available. Search “War on Terror” for additional references. It is clear that terror is the current state of warfare.

Cause and Effect Analysis Applied: Education is a current example recommended for your analysis. Start from the “effect” (where the event or issue  occures), and work backwards, generally up the vertical chain to identify the “cause” at each level in the chain.

The chain in this case starts at the student level and proceeds up the chain to the teachers, school administartors, district administrators, state board of education, U.S. Department of education, and the President.

It would not be unusual to encounter hostility at each level because personnel at a given level are in fear of reprisal from both the lower level (it’s too hard to change), to the upper level (fear and threats of intimidation).

Consider this:  Starting at each level above the student, deviants who might have mental issues, might inject or modify policy which is contrary to reason. And, the level above the problem level is failing to correct the situation. If attention and change to deviant beliefs and behavior is not corrected at the top level of the chain, leadership at all levels will be corrupt. If true, many other events and issues outside of educaation may likewise be affected.

Question: Where does the authority and direction originate that implies the education system can cause students to hide information from parents?

Question: Where does policy guidance originate, and is enforced, for popular mass media to selectively report, distort or ignore critical news items? Does free press imply a license to manipulate the opinions of citizens rather than inform by reporting unfiltered facts.

Research Tactics: Begin at the effect (outcome) level and work backwards to identify the chain of events in reverse order to identify and correct improper issues as they are encountered. FMECA Analysis can be utilized for any problem that is in serial sequence (single chain), or parallel sequence (multiple chains).

Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), and problem solving are normally used in engineering applications, such as in the design, manufacturing, service, repair and testing of hard goods: cars, aircraft, household appliances and equipment and more . . .

However, they can be applied to management systems where policy guidelines are used in the performance of a task. Border security, passport system, telecommunications monitoring, immigration process, transportation systems and more . . .

The most common cause for failure in physical or management systems is failure of personnel to follow established guidelines, or guidelines that have been altered to ensure an incorrect outcome.

Events and Issues identified above are examples of failures in design and performance of management procedures.

Mask of Sanity

I: Historical Perspective

The following video presentation demonstrates the progressive change in norms from reporting observations to analyzing observations, and finally promoting opinions on news items of interest to benefit a hidden objective. This becomes the Mask of Sanity.

Moving Forward II: Identifying the Process

Nonparticipatory observation researchers may find it difficult to remain neutral. Recall the objective is to note and report observations, not indicate the intent of actions observed. However, what is observed can be difficult to identify. There may be a transformation occurring where acceptable norms will be redefined, possibly in response to influences outside of the constitutional intent.

Cleckley's Mask of Sanity may be occurring where what is seen is provided for the observer and public but does not show the process occurring or coordinating relationships in the background. This practice is defined as Psychopathy, or a psychopath personality which is a mix of superficial charm, poor judgment, and failure to learn from experience.

The following Mask of Sanity issues continue while congress seems impudent in providing solutions. It appears what occurs in the background may benefit members of congress and other influencers, while the public sees a staged presentation prepared specifically for them. The educational system appears to be in lockstep with this process.

It is said that most of the public business conducted by congress occurs during luncheon sessions. Thanks to YouTube and CNN here is a purported example of such sessions.

The video is an opportunity for viewers to perform nonparticipative observation research of possible background issues. In a non-opinion manner, record your unbiased observations of the content.

Moving Forward III: Potential Issues

The background and process patterns observed may establish a future forecasting model based on the possible continuation of activities by (1) marketing performers and the effect of the (2) Mask of Sanity.

The metaphor of a tree is helpful in defining political processes internal and external to the United States, and outcomes posted in the War and Terrorism category. The significant number of issues listed in the posts will not be repeated here. Review them to understand the basis for the following discussion.

    • Roots of the tree represent the background issues of the Mask of Sanity. They are the unseen cause of the observable issues.

    • Trunk of the tree represents the media newscasters and marketing performers that for most, but not all media sources, convey the intended interpretation of the issues for the benefit their supporters and donors.

    • Branches and leaves are the issues outside the of mask which the general public observes. It is the task of the media members of the trunk to persuade or misdirect viewers to their intended interpretation.

Putting it in short terms, roots are the cause, the trunk is the spin, and branches and leaves are the effect.

Two of the top branch and leaves issues that fit into the metaphor of the tree are immigration and drugs. The following video represents the spin of the trunk.

Viewers can easily spot the branches and leaves. It is the function of the White House briefing to put the spin on the issues and misdirect responsibility elsewhere.

The question still arises, "where are the roots of the trees" causing the issues?

Summary: Seeking the Root Causes

Until recently, observers found it difficult to identify the cause of historical issues which are significant enough in scope to be of national and international concern. The reason for this appears to be the shielding of root causes by the previously identified "marketing performers" of most, but not all of the media and the White House.

Citizens of all countries do not have access to background sources (the roots) initiating the issues. A few current observable issues of a significant nature are:

The KGB vs. CIA: World-Class Spies? Provides a look behind issues over many years. Few of today's citizens are aware of the documented occurrences. What was an international concern has now become a national concern in the tactics used. 1,000-page document alleges politicization of FBI and DOJ.

The above issues are treated as routine occurrences in the media. Calls for responses to the issues are not immediate or significant. News reporting has become a 7/24 presentation by marketing performers.

Citizens will have to wait-out government healing itself. The ball of yarn is unwinding, and future revelations may be very serious.

Prior Notes:

[1]. Observation research can be initiated and continued when the researcher views unplanned occurrences of potential significance.

[2]. Control or regulate proper and acceptable behavior.

How confident is Bing AI

Question: Asking Bing AI “Who are you?”


I’m a machine, not a human, but using AI I can talk with you. I’m here to help you find answers, create content, provide summaries on a variety of topics, and more.

Keep in mind that I sometimes make mistakes. Use your own judgment and double check the facts before making decisions or taking action based on my answers.

Comment: Bing AI is not very confident. Users must verify search results. Never put AI in charge of controlling critical items. Bing AI appears to be a glorified search engine.

Do Taxies Fly?

Bing Chat AI is not that smart!

Question: How long would it take for a taxi to travel to Planet Mars?

Answer: That’s an interesting question! 🤔

The answer depends on how fast your taxi can go and how far away Mars is from Earth at the time of your trip.

According to NASA, the minimum distance from Earth to Mars is about 33.9 million miles (54.5 million kilometers) but this has never happened in recorded history.

The closest recorded distance was 34.8 million miles (56 million kilometers) in August 2003. The average distance between two planets is 140 million miles (225 million kilometers).

If you could travel at the speed of light, which is about 186,282 miles per second (299,792 km per second), it would take you about 3 minutes to reach Mars at its closest possible approach, or about 21 minutes at its average distance.

However, no taxi can go that fast. The fastest spacecraft so far was NASA’s New Horizons mission, which reached a speed of about 36,000 miles per hour (58,000 km per hour) when it flew past Pluto in 2015. At that speed it would take you about 43 days to reach Mars at its closest possible approach, or about 269 days at its average distance.

Of course, these are just rough estimates. The actual travel time would depend on many factors, such as the alignment of the planets, the trajectory of the spacecraft, the gravity assist from other planets, and the propulsion system used.

I hope this helps you plan your trip to Mars! 😊

Comment: Bing AI did not recognize taxies travel on roads.

Observation Research Phase I: Updated

Active research subjects will be listed in this posting and will be published in the appropriate category shown in the right-hand side navbar. Research presented in the IntelRag Online Log is intended to be understood and useful for most citizens with a high-quality 12th grade education.

Active Research Subject Areas: Events and Issues under consideration for research are listed in broad and general terms below. Specific categories will be assigned during research:

1. Education and the impact on national wealth and individual prosperity.

2. Artificial intelligence, now and the future.

3. Current and future state of science and engineering.

4. Effect of immigration policies on issues 1-3.

Research methods applied are nonparticipatory and passive in nature. This method is based on horizon scanning, a future technique. Observers acknowledge and record external issues and events, similar to noting, recording and reporting news and research narratives.

External events and issues may appear to be interconnected and/or repetitive in nature. When this occurs, the observer may initiate an external search for supporting data and information to explore validity for an initial hypothesis. When supporting data and information validate the initial hypothesis, research may continue to the next phase.

Observation Research Phase II:

    1. This phase is conducted as nonparticipatory or passive observation research, meaning there is no contact or discussion with the subject(s) or objects observed. Refer to the Type of Participant Observation Chart.

    1. The observation research process moves into a phase supported by multiple observers and/or the use of verified and validated data and information provided by external sources. Outcomes at this step are reported as observations, not as opinions.

    1. To form opinions, the research process must include agreement among multiple observers and/or data and information sources on the same issue or event.

    1. Observations should include data and information from reliable sources, such as government databases and reports.

    1. When presenting data and information narratives acquired from reliable sources, the result is reflected as an observation, not as an opinion.

    1. When multiple observers report concurrence regarding the same issue or event, opinions may be stated. However, opinions require credible evidence and proof of the hypothesis to be accepted.

    1. An example of an external observation report narrative substantiated by external data and information is the SOTU: State of The Union Backdrop Summary.

    1. Active research issues will be documented on individual subject pages with links under the "Research" menu.

Observation Research Phase III:

Observations reported in the Intelrag are summarized for citizens to review.

Upon completion, observations may be published as individual posts in the Online Log under a relative category.

Observation Research Phase IV:

Potential candidate issues to appear:

The Homeless - U.S. Economic Disequilibrium - Digital Warfare - Cultural Warfare & Insecurity - Far-east Instability - North Korea Weapons Test-bed - China Monopoly of World Resources - South and Central America Socialism - Status of the Soft WWIII.

Research Notes:

      1. Observation researchers must establish and maintain the research process with care and vigilance. Far too often, personal attitudes or opinions are inserted into the process, thereby misdirecting outcomes away from the issues or events. This results in a case of analyzing a participant or external source thought process, not the issue or event.

      1. When performing observations and evaluating outcomes of occurrences, be they related to things, ideas and concepts or actions of individuals or groups; observations frequently demonstrate interacting components forming a system.

      1. People interact with things and other people, and express ideas and concepts between them as a system. Even things in the form of technology provide feedback which affects the interaction of things, people and groups as systems.

      1. Organizations are hierarchical in nature, with a systemic relationship between levels. Activities and beliefs usually flow through an organization at varying degrees, from the top level to the lower level.

      1. Technology systems may have sequential and/or parallel components and systems which are affected by data inputs throughout the main system. An error in data at one component can be feed to other components and systems causing irregular functioning or failure.

      1. Refer to the Online Log - Research Category: Success with Complex Issues and Systems, and Complex Ordered Issues and Systems Model.

      1. There are numerous research applications and techniques available for evaluating issues, events, conditions, science, engineering, finance, economics, anthropology, humanities, sociology, psychology and more.

      1. Frequently research is presented as divided into two regions of logic, qualitative or quantitative. The fact that both of these general research regions are identified as "having issues," is perennial in the research community. Qualitative constantly attempts to prove it is quantitative, and quantitative attempts to prove outcomes are valid. The statement at the conclusion is frequently . . . "requires further study."

      1. In reality, it is common, as presented in the process outlined above, to begin with qualitative research, and followup with quantitative research.

      1. Another issue is the use of out-of-date references while performing research. There are thousands of colleges, universities and organizations worldwide, where researchers frequently utilize out-of-date and unverified references.

      1. Ethnography is a term related to observation research of peoples and cultures with their customs, habits, and mutual differences. Keep in mind that as a nonparticipating and passive observer, the challenges can be significant. Presence of mind, the ability to remain calm and take sensible action is required to achieve success.

      1. Research subjects are generally covered in statistics courses at the undergraduate level. Theoretical and applied research courses are required at the graduate level. Review of courses and videos depicts a dearth in the application of ethnography and observation research outside of college degree requirements.

Free Online Open Learning Courses: National University of Singapore (NUS).

Quantitative and Qualitative Research for Beginners: Basic introduction to the complex world of research methods and provides both theoretical and practical information for students to give them a foundation for carrying out research in a wide range of disciplines using quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods.

Students Become Terrorists

There are times, when to maintain a neutral mindset during research, breaks are necessary for self-introspection. During twenty-eight years’ experience in military aviation, and twenty years in higher education, the main lesson learned is that observable problems are not the problem. They are the effect for which there are causes.

Students becoming terrorists have causes:

The above list does not address all the causes however, they are the main topics.

Student learning environments have become more unsafe places recently, requiring institution of preventive measures. This very fact causes students to feel unsafe and obviously impacts the effectiveness of teaching and learning.

The U.S. Department of Education: Administers multiple federal programs designed to improve school safety, address critical areas of need for improving the conditions for learning and school climate, and to improve access to systems of support for schools, such as mental health services, trauma, violence prevention, social emotional and behavioral learning, school climate, and school emergency management planning.

Primary School: Attacks that have occurred on school property or related primarily to school issues or events.

Secondary School: Attacks that have occurred on school property or related primarily to school issues or events.

Post-Secondary School: Attacks related to postsecondary schools, such as universities or colleges. These are attacks that occurred on school property, faculty or related primarily to school issues or events.

Education Week: Shadowy criminal gangs with sinister names like The Dark Overlord are terrorizing schools. They hack into district networks and then demand hundreds of thousands of dollars in ransom payments, making threats of terrible consequences if schools do not agree to hand over the money.

Very Well Family: Comprehensive Sexuality Education is a program that starts in early childhood and continues through high school. It teaches that sexuality is a natural, normal part of healthy living and brings up age-appropriate sexuality topics.

Critical Race Theory: The Communist Marxist Left built its political program on the theory of class conflict. Critical race theory (CRT) has become a divisive ideology-based on race as a form of class conflict. It pits proponents and opponents against each other.

CRT: Has become a racially charged debate which is a misguided way to examine the inequalities in American society through the lens of racial injustice. Marxist-style revolutions based on race, ended in disaster. Socialist governments in the Soviet Union, China, Cambodia, Cuba, and elsewhere racked up a body count of nearly 100 million of their own people.

National Education Association (NEA): Education is political. When teaching about U.S. elections or politics, many educators will strive for neutrality. They may insist these discussions have no place in the classroom.

NEA: Adopted an agenda item stating, “It is reasonable and appropriate for curriculum to be informed by academic frameworks for understanding and interpreting the impact of the past on current society, including critical race theory.” This is considered a socialist political propaganda approach by some, not neutral.

Political Corruption in the United States: There’s a lot of corruption associated with political machines, particularly though not exclusively in urban areas. The political machines provide jobs for supporters, who use their positions to generate illicit income for themselves and the party bosses.

Public Education is Political: School is a hazardous environment. Poor quality education, unhealthy environments, narcotics easily available, and sex crimes. U.S. schools rank very poorly in international testing with a science and math ranking of 37th while China ranks first. Even in the arts and humanities, U.S. students rank 25th.

National Institute on Drug Abuse: In 2021, provisional data from CDC estimate more than 107,000 people died of a drug overdose, with 75% of those deaths involving an opioid. The overall rise in overdose deaths is largely attributable to the proliferation in the drug supply of illicit fentanyl.

In-School Surveys for Drugs Prevalence trends by drug for 8th, 10th, and 12th Grade Students. People who reported multiple symptoms consistent with severe substance use disorder at age 18 exhibited two or more of these symptoms in adulthood according to a new analysis of a nationwide survey.

Sex Crimes: An analysis found that at least 135 teachers and teachers’ aides have been arrested in 41 states between January 1 and May 13, which works out to about an arrest a day on average. The vast majority of the arrested educators were men.

National Center for Education Statistics: It is apparent the environment and experiences students encounter are not friendly in many instances. In conjunction with the internal environment on campus, there is the external environment off campus.  Annual Reports . and Information Staff. Forty (40) Student crime statistics for 2021/2022, analysis and predictions. Reported incidents of violence in schools over the past few years have left parents, students, and even educators to question how safe campuses really are.

The Squad: Four members of Congress representing themselves as progressive women of color may have much in common with student protestors. They may be the image that student protesters emulate, however, in a violent way.

Student Protests: Theft, robbery, rape, carjacking, arson, gang activity, use and sale of drugs and many more activities, may be a response to the perceived and real environment. The negative issues addressed above are abnormal in an advanced, enlightened society.

COVID-19: Education, the lingering effects of unfinished learning. U.S. states and districts have the opportunity to not only help students catch up on unfinished learning from the pandemic but also tackle long-standing historical inequities in education.

American Psychological Association:  Students and others who are more open to terrorist recruitment and radicalization tend to:

  • Feel angry, alienated or disenfranchised.
  • Believe that their current political involvement does not give them the power to effect real change.
  • Identify with perceived victims of the social injustice they are fighting.
  • Feel the need to take action rather than just talking about the problem.
  • Believe that engaging in violence against the state is not immoral.
  • Have friends or family sympathetic to the cause.
  • Believe that joining a movement offers social and psychological rewards such as adventure, camaraderie and a heightened sense of identity.

Terrorism and Schools: As terrorism evolves and as more youth embrace extremist ideologies, there is a growing need to include processes to assess, prepare, protect, mitigate, respond, and ultimately recover from terrorism-motivated incidents within district and school safety plans.

On a good note:

American Heart Association: The House Education and Labor Committee approved the Healthy Meals, Healthy Kids Act, which would reauthorize federal child nutrition programs and help guarantee that kids are not only fed but have access to the healthy meals they need to learn. The American Heart Association, the world’s leading voluntary organization focused on heart and brain health.

SOTU 2023: Domestic Events

Observations of past and present events. Narratives are not intended to indicate an order of significance. Depending on the individual reviewer or organization, summaries may have a different order of importance. In time each of the items below will be expanded.

(a). U.S. Capital Attack – On January 6, 2021, President Trump claimed the election had been stolen and mounted legal challenges in several states that he had lost. More than 2,000 entered the capital, many of whom occupied, vandalized, looted, and assaulted Capitol Police. Wikipedia.

(b). Congressional Baseball Game – On June 14, 2017, the FBI, federal, state, and local law enforcement partner agencies investigated a shooting at the Eugene Simpson Stadium Park. The mass shooting occurred during a practice session for the annual Congressional Baseball Game in Alexandria, Virginia. Wikipedia.

(c). San Bernadino – On December 2, 2015, a terrorist attack consisting of a mass shooting and an attempted bombing occurred at the Inland Regional Center in San Bernadino, California. ATF conducted traces on the weapons and has determined that they were purchased by the shooter from federal firearms licensees. No evidence that the weapons were purchased unlawfully.

(d). Fort Hood – On April 2, 2014, a mass shooting spree was perpetrated at several locations on the Fort Hood military base near Killeen, Texas. Four people, including the gunman, were killed while14 additional people were injured.

(e). Boston Marathon Bombing – On April 15, 2013, two terrorists planted two homemade pressure cooker bombs which detonated near the finish line of the race, killing three people and injuring hundreds of others, including 17 who lost limbs. The attack took place during the annual race.

(f). Fort Hood – On November 5, 2009, a mass shooting took place. A U.S. Army major and psychiatrist, fatally shot 13 people and injured more than 30 others. It was the deadliest mass shooting on an American military base.

(g). Oklahoma City Bombing – On April 19, 1995, perpetrated by two anti-extremists, killed at least 168 people, injured more than 680 others, and destroyed more than one-third of the building, which had to be demolished. The blast destroyed or damaged 324 other buildings within a 16-block radius. Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building,


SOTU 2023: Running Summary

Past and present selected observations considered important will be summarized. The summary is a standing post that will be updated throughout the year. Each year, the current copy of the post will be archived and become the basis for the next year’s post. Tenth Anniversary of the 2012 Future Forecast.

The future horizon may indicate international events affecting the U.S. are driven by root causes to manipulate financial markets for international, organizational and personal gain.

If so, this may open the door and expose participation by domestic and international interests in events against the U.S.? Refer to the “SOTU 2023: International Events” posting.

If the 9/11 report has the same lack of integrity as charges against President Trump by fifty security experts, this should be cause for concern.

Background I: Notes, Terms and Examples

  • Links in this posting open additional postings or external references for review of the subject listed. Close opened postings or references to return to this posting.
  • Issues are unsettled matters of a long-term nature where there is disagreement on recognition of the issues or the manner in which to resolve them.
  • Events are occurrences of a negative or positive nature noteworthy of recognition at the time of occurrence.
  • COVID-19 is an example of a negative event in which millions have died. COVID-19 has become a long-term issue in that there is disagreement on the origin of the disease, and the proper method to resolve the issue.

Background II: Observations Derived from Horizon Scanning:

  • Subjective observations may be factual however, researchers may partially agree or disagree with observations presented. Typically used in social sciences.
  • Objective observations are derived from facts and conditions. Typically used in physical sciences and engineering.

Background III: Research Methods

Evaluating a single subject may be simple, while linking the effects of multiple subjects can become highly complex. Typical methods used singularly or in combination include:

Background IV: Horizon Scanning

Techniques listed in the research category will be applied:

SOTU 2023 Running Summary:

Apply objective logic and provide a forecast for future years based on past and present observations. Where the past and present meet the future.

Forward I: Summary of War and Terrorism Issues and Events

Issues summarized in this post are listed in the War and Terrorism category. The summary will evaluate actions taken or not taken, and where responsibility is assigned. Based on outcome of past and present issues, the probability of future events will be presented. Summaries of Issues and Events will develop over an extended time.

2017 SOTU Part IV: National Defense, Security and Immigration establishes the basis for the 2022 Summary. The Oath of Office of the President of the United States and all members of Congress are plainly stated. Additionally, employees, lobbyists, contractors and virtually any position paid for by the citizens of the United States are covered by a similar Oath of Office requirement.

Forward II: Presidents

Presidents of the United States in chronological order. Entries contain links to separate pages with historical information for each president. (Wikipedia) (Encyclopedia Britannica)

Historical rankings of the Presidents of the United States are debatable. Surveys conducted by several independent organizations are listed. The lists are somewhat subjective in nature with different poll results provided.

List of wars involving the United States: There are 105 wars on the list, 4 of which are ongoing. The list is categorized as follows: conflicts, allies, opponents, results, and presidents at the time of conflicts. Wars listed on the above link provide a view of seemingly constant military actions. Consult the following list links for major conflicts. The periods listed may have intervals in conflict.

Major 20th and 21st Century Wars:

World War I: 1914-1918- President, Woodrow Wilson – Democrat

World War II: 1939-1945 – Presidents, Franklin D. RooseveltHarry S. Truman – Democrat

Korean War: 1950-1953 – Presidents, Harry S. Truman – Democrat, Dwight D. Eisenhower – Republican

Vietnam War: 1955-1975 – Presidents, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson – Democrat, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford – Republican

Gulf War: 1990-1991 – George H.W. Bush – Republican

Iraqi No-Fly Zone Operations: 1991-2002 – Presidents, George H.W. Bush– Republican, Bill Clinton – Democrat

Iraq War: 2003-2011 – Presidents, George W. Bush – Republican, Barack Obama – Democrat

Afghanistan War: 2002-2021 – Presidents, George W. Bush, Donald Trump – Republican, Barack Obama, Joe Biden – Democrat

Note: Wars listed in the above references were essentially armed conflict between adversaries. There appears to be a change in methods from direct armed conflict to indirect confrontation and third-party players as listed in the Issue and Event Summaries below.

Of significant concern is the inability to hold aggressors responsible. Conducting business as usual with aggressors does not appear to have consequences. Individuals and groups appear to be practicing profiteering without loyalty to their home country.

Forward III: International Conflict

The Indochina War in which North Vietnam invaded South Vietnam is referred to as the Vietnam War. The United States in support of South Vietnam were confronted by the militaries of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), and Russia, which were both in support of North Vietnam. Prior to the Indochina War, the United States military were also involved in confrontation with the PRC and Russia when North Korea invaded South Korea.

The history of conflict with the PRC and Russia is longstanding and founded in the doctrine of communism and socialism. Observations have demonstrated that taking a liberal, non-defensive posture when confronting or negotiating with followers of the communist or socialist doctrine will not result in satisfactory outcomes.

Communism is a political, social, and economic ideology that advocates the replacement of private ownership and profit-based economies with a classless economic system.

Socialism refers to democratic control of recourses where everything is owned or controlled by the state as opposed to private ownership of resources. List of socialist states.  (communist)

Islam is a religious system based mostly in the Middle East with the duty to struggle to gain resources and territory. Islam can involve aggressive behavior and the desire for conquest through Jihad. Modern conflicts.

Democracy is a system of government by the eligible population through elected representatives, and which embraces Capitalism where a country’s trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit.

Forward IV: Theoretical Discussion

YouTube: Firing Line video of September 10, 1995, with William F. Buckley Jr. and Henry Kissinger outline and define past posture of international issues over a period of thirty years (1960s-1990s). It seems that Communist, Socialist, and Islamic actor states have changed little since that period and may predict continuation of conflict into the foreseeable future.

Henry Kissinger expressed a point of view that it may be possible to negotiate and become involved in commerce with adversarial states given a strong stance and military were maintained. The cautious optimism expressed by Henry Kissinger may have been the catalyst that many government, financial, consulting, and commercial organizations needed to venture into the abyss with the PRC and other self-proclaimed unfriendly states.

Moving commerce in sourcing goods and services from the domestic economy of the U.S. and other democratic nations to unfriendly states has resulted in a loss of citizen and U.S. national wealth, and a significant increase in national debt. Refer to: U.S. Economy and International Trade, and currently to the Future Forecast Background for 2022-2028.

Forward V: Profiteering

Frequently comments in the media address the significant wealth generated by government insiders trading and investing in stocks. The basis for the comments appears to be advance knowledge of government actions affecting the market. Offshoring of U.S. manufacturing and services may have presented an opportunity that could not be resisted. This may be improper conduct and violation of the Oath of Office. The total sum of profits may not be significant, however, may demonstrate malfeasance. U.S. Politician Stock Trading.

Of greater concern may be questionable activities between members of the government, financial, consulting and commercial organizations using national positions to act as agents of foreign governments and entities. Although the U.S. government has a required budget reporting system, it is not a financial accounting system of annual budget expenditures. It is estimated that annual unaccounted funds may average twenty-eight percent (28%). With $6 Trillion budgeted for Fiscal Year 2023, the unaccounted value could be $1.68 Trillion.

Is profiteering indicated by acts performed for the benefit of self-proclaimed adversaries of the United States, acting as an agent on behalf of an enemy state?

Explosive New Connections? The Biden Foreign Agent Scandal – The Dan Bongino Show on rumble, may expose the roots of the tree as addressed in the Mask of Sanity.

2023 Running Summaries Continued

The history of war and terrorism is a continuous series of events and issues. Regardless of the location, today’s events and issues are most often affected by international influences based in Communism, Socialism and Islam. Leaders of countries based on these beliefs are most often concerned with personal power and conquest. Citizens of the countries are generally peaceful and subject to the dictatorial and repressive regimes.

Interim observation indicates, over time, worldwide warfare has been underway for decades and is increasing in severity. Self-described enemies of democracy appear to be anxious and fearless in their desire for escalation leading to major incursions.

Domestic criminal organizations appear to be expanding at a rapid rate impacted by loss of international control of immigration. This may become irreversible affecting even the supporters of decreased law enforcement.

SOTU 2023: Event and Issue Summaries:

Consult the Recent Post links on the righthand task bar for the following supplementary research posts.

SOTU 2023: Domestic Events

SOTU 2023: International Events

SOTU 2023: Domestic Issues

SOTU 2023: International Issues



SOTU 2023: International Events

Observations of past and present events. Narratives are not intended to indicate an order of significance. Depending on the individual reviewer or organization, summaries may have a different order of importance. In time each of the items below will be expanded.

(a). New York Twin Towers. September 11, 2001 (9/11). Attorney General John Ashcroft blames Clinton-era FBI, CIA. The 9/11Executive Summary. The Commission Report.

Review of THE 9/11 COMMISSION REPORT titled: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks on the United States. The commission consisted of eight senior members (senators, governors and lawyers), and eighty commission staff in support of the effort. The most significant statement in the executive summary is that another attack is expected. Reasons for this are stated problems with foresight, planning and support.

Although there was an overall sense of discomfort that “something” was occurring, the ability to identify, track and impede unknown events was not supported by FBI (domestic), CIA (international) security efforts. Reasons stated were insufficient resources, inability to share information between the entities and ineffective tracking of alien movement within the United States.

Although a significant number of personnel were assigned to create the Commission Report, it reads as a summary. The main Commission Report is significantly more detailed with respect to FAA procedures, however, could not accurately track the hijacked aircraft.

Additional sections of both the summary and main report were superficial regarding real data. Tracking movement of terrorist members was essentially nonexistent. There was advanced indication that significant members of the group were known to be present on the east coast and west coast, routinely moving between locations. The fact that there were groups was unknown prior to the terrorist attack.

As stated, the Executive Summary indicates additional attacks are expected within the United States. The inability to track alien movement today is far more difficult given the growth in millions of aliens, documented and undocumented, entering the country. Are there terrorists entering the country?

Current efforts to control alien entry and movement does not appear to have improved, and may be interpreted as aiding alien movement, and potential terrorists.

(b). World Trade Center Bombing. Occurred on February 26, 1993. Later investigation revealed that Yousef’s Trade Center plot was far more sinister. He wanted the bomb to topple one tower, with the collapsing debris knocking down the second. The attack turned out to be something of a deadly dress rehearsal for 9/11. With the help of Yousef’s uncle Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, al Qaeda would later return to realize Yousef’s nightmarish vision.

(c). War in Ukraine. Ongoing international conflict between Russia, alongside Russian backed separatists, and Ukraine, which began in February 2014. Following Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas war. The first eight years of conflict also included naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and heightened political tensions. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

(d). Afghan War. Biden administration’s decision in April 2021 to pull out all US troops by September 2021 without leaving a residual force, were the two critical events that caused the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Following the deal, the US dramatically reduced the number of air attacks and deprived the ANSF of a critical edge in fighting the Taliban insurgency, leading to the Taliban takeover of Kabul on 15 August 2021.

(e). EgyptAir Flight 990. October 31, 1999 The cockpit voice recorder (CVR) recorded the captain excusing himself to go to the lavatory, followed 30 seconds later by the first officer saying in Egyptian Arabic “Tawkalt ala Allah,” which can be translated as “I put my trust in God.” A minute later, the autopilot was disengaged, immediately followed by the first officer again repeating the same Arabic phrase which can be also translated as, “I rely on God.” Three seconds later, the throttles for both engines were reduced to idle, and both elevators were moved 3° nose down. The first officer repeated “I rely on God” seven more times.

(f). Pam Am Flight 103. Shortly after 19:00 on 21 December 1988, while the aircraft was in flight over the Scottish town of Lockerbie, it was destroyed by a bomb that had been planted on board, killing all 243 passengers and 16 crew in what became known as the Lockerbie bombing. Large sections of the aircraft crashed in a residential street in Lockerbie, killing 11 residents. With a total of 270 fatalities, it is the deadliest terrorist attack in the history of the United Kingdom, as well as its deadliest aviation disaster.

(g). Beirut Barracks Bombings. Early on a Sunday morning, October 23, 1983, two truck bombs struck buildings in Beirut, Lebanon, housing American and French service members of the Multinational Force in (MNF) Lebanon, a military peacekeeping operation during the Lebanese Civil War. The attack killed 307 people: 241 U.S. and 58 French military personnel, six civilians, and two attackers.